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Títol

How cooperation may lead to dramatic outbreaks in interacting dynamics

Conferenciant

Fakhteh Ghanbarnejad

Professor/a organitzador/a

Elisa Omodei

Institució

Technische Universitt Berlin

Data

04-11-2016 12:00

Resum

Susceptible-Infective-Susceptible (SIS) and Susceptible-Infective-Recovered (SIR) are two successful models for understanding the dynamics of infectious diseases. Nevertheless deadly cases like tuberculosis during the 1918-1919 Spanish Flu and unexpected HIV cases in presence of hepatitis B and C, TB and Malaria, and vice versa, showed us that interaction between two spreading dynamics can dramatically change the epidemic dynamics. Here we investigate the mechanisms which might lead to the unexpected outbreaks; In this work, we study spreading of two cooperative diseases: a SIS and a SIR dynamics and address similarities and differences in comparison to other minimal cooperative models, i.e. SIR-SIR [1] and SIS-SIS [2]. We build up an idealized and simplified model and treat it in mean field approximations as well as stochastic agent based models. Thus in a mean field treatment we calculate the cooperative epidemic threshold and also outbreak size accordingly. We find out in presence of cooperation an emerging region in the parameter space where the stable endemic and stable free-disease states co-exist. Interestingly this region appears differently in comparison to the SIR-SIR and SIS-SIS models. Also We track the dynamics on random generated networks; And argue how topological features can facilitate or neutralize the cooperation effect. [1] EPL 104 (2013) 50001; Nature Physics 11, 936940 (2015); Rev. E 93, 042316. [2] arXiv:1603.09082v1.

Lloc

Laboratori 231

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