Publications -- epidemics

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  Disease Containment Strategies based on Mobility and Information Dissemination

Scientific Reports 5, 10650 - DOI:10.1038/srep10650 - 2015

A. Lima, M. De Domenico, V. Pejovic, M. Musolesi

Human mobility and social structure are at the basis of disease spreading. Disease containment strategies are usually devised from coarse-grained assumptions about human mobility. Cellular networks data, however, provides finer-grained information, not only about how people move, but also about how they communicate.
In this paper, using cellular network data, we analyze the behavior of a large number of individuals in Ivory Coast. We model mobility and communication between individual by means of an interconnected multiplex structure where each node represents the population in a geographic area (i.e. a \textit{sous-pr\'efecture}, a third-level administrative region). We present a model that describes how diseases circulate around the country as people move between regions. We extend the model with a concurrent process of relevant information spreading. This process corresponds to people disseminating disease prevention information, e.g. hygiene practises, vaccination campaign notices and other, within their social network. Thus, this process interferes with the epidemic. We then evaluate how restricting the mobility or using an adverse information spreading process affects the epidemic. We find that restricting mobility does not delay the occurrence of an endemic state and that an information campaign might be an effective countermeasure.

  Competing spreading processes on multiplex networks: Awareness and epidemics

Physical Review E 90, 012808 - DOI: - 2014

C. Granell, S. Gomez and A. Arenas

Epidemic-like spreading processes on top of multilayered interconnected complex networks reveal a rich phase diagram of intertwined competition effects. A recent study by the authors [Granell et al. Phys. Rev. Lett. 111, 128701 (2013)] presented the analysis of the interrelation between two processes accounting for the spreading of an epidemics, and the spreading of information awareness to prevent its infection, on top of multiplex networks. The results in the case in which awareness implies total immunization to the disease, revealed the existence of a metacritical point at which the critical onset of the epidemics starts depending on the reaching of the awareness process. Here we present a full analysis of these critical properties in the more general scenario where the awareness spreading does not imply total immunization, and where infection does not imply immediate awareness of it. We find the critical relation between both competing processes for a wide spectrum of parameters representing the interaction between them. We also analyze the consequences of a massive broadcast of awareness (mass media) on the final outcome of the epidemic incidence. Importantly enough, the mass media makes the metacritical point to disappear. The results reveal that the main finding i.e. existence of a metacritical point, is rooted on the competition principle and holds for a large set of scenarios.

  Dynamical interplay between awareness and epidemic spreading in multiplex networks

Physical Review Letters, 111, 128701 - DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.111.128701 - 2013

C. Granell, S. Gomez and A. Arenas

We present the analysis of the interrelation between two processes accounting for the spreading of an epidemic, and the information awareness to prevent its infection, on top of multiplex networks. This scenario is representative of an epidemic process spreading on a network of persistent real contacts, and a cyclic information awareness process diffusing in the network of virtual social contacts between the same individuals. The topology corresponds to a multiplex network where two diffusive processes are interacting affecting each other. The analysis using a microscopic Markov chain approach reveals the phase diagram of the incidence of the epidemics and allows us to capture the evolution of the epidemic threshold depending on the topological structure of the multiplex and the interrelation with the awareness process. Interestingly, the critical point for the onset of the epidemics has a critical value (metacritical point) defined by the awareness dynamics and the topology of the virtual network, from which the onset increases and the epidemics incidence decreases